Tight supply and demand, cobalt prices rose nearly 80% in 4 months

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Release Time :

2017-02-21

According to the data of the business society, in February 2017, the performance of cobalt ingots in the domestic small metal sector was eye-catching, and the price rose all the way. As of the 20th, the average price of cobalt in the domestic market was 376,500 yuan/ton, up 27.99% from the average market price at the beginning of the month at 294,166.66 yuan/ton. Since the start of the rising cobalt price in November 2016, it has risen by 76.35%.

Analysts pointed out that at present, all kinds of mineral products are rebounding in a "V" shape, the price correlation between minerals is strong, and the news of the shortage of non-ferrous mines interacts, pushing up metal prices .

Overseas cobalt market is hot

Returning after the festival, the cobalt price continued the previous hot market and rose sharply. On the one hand, based on the cumulative increase in the external cobalt price during the Spring Festival and the continuous surge in the follow-up after the return, the foreign media cobalt price drove the domestic cobalt price to rise.

The market demand for cobalt metal and cobalt oxide in Europe and North America is strong, and prices are rising. The foreign media cobalt has reached a new high. According to the tracking data of the business agency, the price of foreign media cobalt (purity not less than 99.8%, MB free market, warehouse delivery) on February 17, 2017 was 20.75-20.9 US dollars / pound, compared with January On the 18th, the foreign media cobalt price was 15.6-16.6 US dollars / pound, an increase of 29.35%; the overseas cobalt price has exceeded 20 US dollars / pound, which is about 50% higher than 13.6 US dollars / pound in early December.

Currently, domestic mainstream manufacturers have low inventories, rising raw material prices, and strong cost support. The industry's bullish attitude is obvious. Traders' inquiries are increasing day by day, and manufacturers' external quotations are rising.

The cobalt industry chain price linkage transmission phenomenon is obvious. The price of cobalt tetroxide continued to rise strongly before the festival. The price of cobalt tetroxide was 280,000-290,000 yuan / ton, and the average price was 70,000-80,000 yuan / ton higher than that before the festival. The prices of cobalt oxide and cobalt powder have been rising strongly. The supply of cobalt powder manufacturers is tight, and the manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and they just need to sell at high prices.

Affected by the increase in raw materials, the price of cobalt sulfate rose to 79-83 yuan/kg, and the price of cobalt chloride was 89-93 yuan/kg, both more than ten before the festival. Points of increase, but the downstream wait-and-see mainly, insufficient undertaking, the actual transaction is light.

Lithium cobalt oxide is subject to the strong upstream price of cobalt tetroxide, which is greatly affected by cost factors, and the price is also transmitted. The downstream battery customers are mainly rigid purchases, and the market outlook remains to be seen.

Ye Jianjun, a cobalt analyst at the business community, pointed out that the high overseas prices continued to increase the spot price of domestic metal cobalt sheets, cobalt salts and derivatives. Although the domestic cobalt market has not seen a significant recovery in downstream consumption, However, the phenomenon of stockpiling in the early stage is obvious. Although the downstream demand digestion ability is not strong in the near future, the market is under the dual influence of investment speculators and upstream sales control. In addition, the overseas cobalt market is booming, which is beneficial to the domestic cobalt product export market, and the domestic cobalt market is rising rapidly.

Tight supply of cobalt ore raw materials

The long-term negotiation between ore producer Glencore, Freeport and downstream smelters ended in December. The discount factor of the negotiation increased by about 5 percentage points compared with 2015. Cobalt prices reached a consensus to rise. As a downstream battery company, CATL directly participated in the long-order negotiation, and signed a long-order supply agreement with Freeport (CMOC).

According to the analysis of the announcement on the acquisition of indirect interests in world-class copper-cobalt mines issued by CMOC on the morning of February 20, if the acquisition is completed, the structure of the industrial chain will be optimized, and to a certain extent Ease the tension of domestic cobalt mines.

In the early stage, Huayou Cobalt Company invested 1.432 billion yuan to acquire the PE527 copper-cobalt mining rights acquisition and development project in Congo (Kinshasa), with copper reserves of 368,500 tons and cobalt reserves of 55,400 tons After completion, the annual output of copper is 14,300 tons and cobalt is 3,100 tons. The construction period is 1.5 years and the production period is 0.5 years. It is initially planned that the copper-cobalt concentrate will be shipped back to China and sold to Huayou Cobalt and Huayou Quzhou as raw materials, and other products will be sold to CDM's smelter for processing. As copper and cobalt prices rise, on the one hand, resource advantages can be used to control costs to a certain extent, and on the other hand, the pressure of price increases can be passed down.

GEM is committed to cobalt recycling capacity, opening up the ternary battery material industry chain.

Long order agreements, cross-border acquisition of upstream mining companies, and strengthening of recycling are different ways to solve the problem of cobalt ore raw material supply, but in a sense, it has aroused the market's expectation of shortage of supply .

Ye Jianjun believes that due to the promotion of overseas prices and capital speculation, coupled with the reluctance of manufacturers to sell and control sales, all kinds of cobalt products have been rising since mid-October. In the early stage, the domestic cobalt price was strongly guided by overseas. At present, the domestic cobalt price has covered the increase in the foreign media cobalt price. In the near future, the cobalt market will mainly digest the increase and maintain stability through shocks.

“In the later stage, special attention should be paid to the growth of demand, especially the growth of lithium batteries (new energy vehicles). . ” Liu Xintian, Secretary General of China Commodity Development Research Center, emphasized.