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Domestic cobalt industry supply and demand pattern or ushered in a reversal


Release time:

2016-05-18

The combination of multiple factors presents opportunities for the cobalt sector: "supply contraction", "demand growth" and "price bottom" triple factors change the market's future expectations for cobalt products. As a global cobalt refining country and a large cobalt consumption country, China is significantly affected by its influence, related enterprises are mainly Huayou cobalt also, Luoyang molybdenum industry, Glimmer and so on.

The price of cobalt products is at a relative bottom: since the financial crisis in 2008, the price of cobalt has been falling all the way, from the highest price of 860000/ton to less than 200000/ton. Although the price of cobalt products is still at the lowest level in history, judging from the changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the future, the price of cobalt products may rise.

The supply and demand pattern of the cobalt industry is about to reverse: in 2015, the global supply of refined cobalt was about 102000 tons, while the demand for cobalt was about 92000 tons. But after entering 16 years, the supply has changed significantly. Cobalt is a copper-nickel associated ore, and copper prices continue to fall, causing supply to contract. Among them, Glencore shut down two minerals (18 months of maintenance), resulting in a contraction of about 5000 tons of cobalt supply. At the same time, due to the impact of child labor in Africa and the limitation of mining conditions, Congo, which accounts for 50% of the global cobalt supply, will shut down about 10000 tons of artisanal mines, and the overall supply will be conservatively estimated to be reduced by 15000 tons. This has led to a change in supply, thereby changing the pattern of supply and demand, which is expected to be reversed in 17 years.

The demand for cobalt continues to grow: cobalt is mainly used in hard alloy, lithium battery and other industries, from a global point of view about 44% of which cobalt is used in lithium batteries, while China's cobalt demand in lithium batteries accounted for up to 76%, China's new energy vehicle development of cobalt demand driven by obvious. From the data of the past five years, the overall demand for cobalt has maintained an average annual growth of 7.4. Cobalt is mainly used in 3C batteries and power batteries (ternary) positive electrodes in lithium batteries. Driven by the continued growth in smartphone sales, the 3C battery segment is still growing by about 10%. In terms of power batteries for new energy vehicles, although ternary power batteries currently account for a relatively low proportion (27% of power batteries), with the improvement of passenger car mileage requirements, the proportion of ternary batteries will also be improved, thus becoming one of the main growth points of cobalt demand.